Presidential debates have produced some of the most memorable moments of modern campaigns. … For all the lore and media buildup, the events haven’t had much impact on election outcomes. “Where you started the debate season is pretty much where you end the debate season,” said Christopher Wlezien, a political […] Read more »
Skewed polls and the ornate palace of self-flattering delusions
A new poll by Public Policy Polling (PPP) asks respondents the charmingly reflexive question of whether they think pollsters are “deliberately skewing their polls this year to help Barack Obama, or not”. … I don’t want to spend any time at all explaining why the idea that pollsters overall are […] Read more »
Do presidential debates usually matter? Political scientists say no.
The first of three debates between President Obama and Mitt Romney airs tomorrow. History is littered with examples of debate performances that allegedly decided elections. … But did any of those actually matter? The best political science says no. Perhaps the most compelling evidence for the irrelevance of debates is […] Read more »
A pollster under oath
… In May, the pollster for Al Gore’s presidential bid in 2000 and John Edwards’s in 2004 and 2008, Harrison Hickman, took the stand in the federal criminal case against Edwards over alleged campaign finance violations stemming from payments to support Edwards’s mistress. Under oath, Hickman admitted that in the […] Read more »
WPA Pre-Election Polling Summary
… Things are bad, but not as bad as you might think. No matter how you look at the race, Mitt Romney now trails Barack Obama. Depending on which poll you review (more on this later), that deficit is anywhere from two points to seven but no polls are showing […] Read more »
Tired Cries of Bias Don’t Help Romney
In the last few days, conservatives have become agitated about Mitt Romney’s drop-off in the polls. So did they think the stumble was because of the ill-fated “47 percent” slip of the lip, or the hasty effort to gain a political edge after the death of an American ambassador in […] Read more »