… As I mentioned after the debate, I had not come across a study on the relationship between instant-reaction debate polls and the eventual effect on the horse race polls. So I decided to do a quick one myself. The chart below reflects the candidates that debate watchers deemed to […] Read more »
Networks, AP cancel exit polls in 19 states
Breaking from two decades of tradition, this year’s election exit poll is set to include surveys of voters in 31 states, not all 50 as it has for the past five presidential elections, according to multiple people involved in the planning. … Voters in the excluded states will still be […] Read more »
When Assessing House, Parties Are in Parallel Universes
… This year, Republicans believe that Democratic pollsters are relying too heavily on the 2008 turnout models, that the samples showing Democrats doing well in key districts include more minority and younger voters than those who will actually turn out. Democrats think Republicans are too wedded to the 2010 models […] Read more »
First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls
Conventional wisdom holds that the first presidential debate offers an especially good opportunity for the challenging candidate, who for the first time gets to stand on a literal public stage, and a proverbial level playing field, with the incumbent president. As much as we like to debunk the conventional wisdom […] Read more »
Why we need national polls even when it’s swing states that decide the election
I’ve been asked what the point of national polls is. The question was posed because, with the electoral college system, this election is going to be decided in the swing states. Indeed, most voters have pretty much no chance at casting the decisive vote. But here are five reasons why […] Read more »
Why Mitt Romney Won’t Win the Post Debate Swing State Polls
Tonight Mitt Romney could give the most effective debate performance since Ronald Reagan out debated President Carter, or even since Abraham Lincoln showed up Stephen Douglas, and Mitt Romney will still lose the post debate swing state polls. Why? Because the voter samples that the media pollsters will call are […] Read more »