Joe Biden is underwater: 45 percent of voters approve of his job performance as president while 52 percent disapprove, adding up to a net approval rating of negative seven percentage points. Yet Biden isn’t sinking Democratic congressional candidates — they lead Republicans in national House polls by one point. These […] Read more »
Why the GOP can’t count on Joe Biden’s low ratings to sink Democrats
We are now under a month until Election Day, and you can feel the midterm campaign really taking hold. From Herschel Walker generating headlines for his troubles in Georgia to the Senate GOP campaign arm cutting bait in New Hampshire, we’re getting down to crunch time. All of this is […] Read more »
When marijuana is on the ballot, it wins
Marijuana, at times, seems to be a third rail in American politics. While most Democrats are ardent defenders of abortion rights and gay rights, many party lawmakers are less vocal about decriminalizing or legalizing marijuana. It was only Thursday when President Joe Biden decided to pardon all people convicted of […] Read more »
Which Way Is the Wind Blowing?
By this point in a typical midterm year, it’s pretty obvious which way the wind is blowing. Perceptions of the president and his party have been settled. The issue environment is also well-defined. This year, however, it feels as if both are in flux. But, are they? … By October […] Read more »
Horse-race polls are not fixable
The biggest “problem” with horse-race polling isn’t fixable. The entire concept of polling depends on having a set population from which one can take a random sample and get a generally representative snapshot. Pre-election polls have no existing population—the election hasn’t happened yet, and voting isn’t compulsory in the U.S., […] Read more »
Midterm polls swing back to the right
Over the past few months, Democrats have enjoyed an unexpected feeling of optimism, as polling has shown their party unexpectedly competitive in House and Senate races. Maybe, despite the political gravity tugging their party down, they might be able to hold the Senate? Maybe both chambers? In less-realistic iterations, that […] Read more »