… The “incumbent rule” emerged from an underlying structure that is increasingly absent. In the ’80s and ’90s, most incumbents were much better-known than their challengers. So when a voter said he was “undecided,” what he really meant is that he knew the incumbent and did not particularly want to […] Read more »
Beware of ‘likely voter’ label
The polls are changing. As we enter the home stretch, public pollsters are transitioning their samples from registered voters to so-called “likely voters.” The general impression this conveys is that polls are suddenly becoming more accurate. Readers should be skeptical. The science behind the selection of “likely” voters is soft. […] Read more »
Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast
Following another day of strong polling on Tuesday, Mitt Romney advanced into the best position in the FiveThirtyEight forecast since the party conventions. His chances of winning the Electoral College are now 28.8 percent in the forecast, his highest since Aug. 29. For the first time since Aug. 28, President […] Read more »
Numbers overload: Polling data hype sways voters
Treating presidential polls as gospel is a little like placing political faith in the lifespan of a fruit fly. “People tend to subscribe a more durable nature to polling data,” said Russ Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University. “It’s more ephemeral.” … Pundits whip themselves up with every […] Read more »
Poll Watching 101
This time of year, new campaign polls seem to [pop] up every 15 minutes. Some basic guidelines can help readers navigate the resulting treacherous terrain. [cont.] Jon Cohen, Washington Post Read more »
After Conventions, Follow the Bouncing Poll Numbers
After a summer in which the polling in the presidential race was exceptionally stable — with Barack Obama generally holding a lead of about two percentage points in national surveys — the numbers since the party conventions have been a wild ride. … Polling data is often very noisy, and […] Read more »