The latest Gallup USA Today Battleground survey showing President Obama and Governor Romney tied with women in battleground states (48-48) is an extreme outlier, defying the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll. This result underscores deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen. Only 2 years ago the […] Read more »
Latest swing state poll snapshot
One week ago, we took a look at the swing state polls, which were just starting to show some movement in the wake of the first Obama-Romney debate; now on the eve of their second face off, we can certainly see how things changed in favor of the Republican nominee. […] Read more »
Making Our Voices Heard Before We Vote
What would a presidential election be like if the news media neither commissioned nor reported on any polls?” At first glance, that seems like a dream world. [cont.] Donna Brazile (NYT) Read more »
Polls Vanish! Real Debate Ensues!
… No one knew how it had happened — how what came to be known as the Voxnix Worm had burrowed its way into the Web. But what was clear was that the media — old, new, social, anti-social — had to find something to fill the hours of air […] Read more »
Acknowledge the Limits of Prediction
… Gallup saw election polls as only the entering wedge for more important surveys on the issues of the day, which would restore political responsiveness by applying the new tool of statistical sampling “to the old problem of finding out what the people of this free-thinking, free-speaking democracy wish to […] Read more »
Polls, lies and ‘the prediction business’
These are the days of uncertainty. The pollsters tell us so. You wouldn’t know it from the pundits, however. They rend their garments or sing hosannas as if each little survey statistic was handed down from on high, chiseled into tablets. [cont.] Todd Leopold, CNN Read more »