In the vast majority of pre-election polls, likely voters are usually asked, “If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?” That’s the wrong question to ask, says Justin Wolfers, a political economist with the University of Michigan. He’s spent years researching polls, and in a new paper […] Read more »
Ted Frank: My election prediction
72 hours from election day! Who’s going to win? Nate Silver says that “For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased.” I think this is correct. … That said, I do believe that there is a substantial chance that the state polls are a biased prediction of where […] Read more »
For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased
… There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida. Although the fact that Mr. Obama held the lead in so many polls […] Read more »
Please, give us more pollsters and fewer pundits
… Campaign 2012 has seen news outlets go ever more deeply into making news, not merely reporting on it. They don’t just conduct polls, as they have for years. They have embraced the art of computer modeling, generating a constantly revised picture of the national political scene. More noise than […] Read more »
Forecasting Tuesday
Less than a week before the election, many observers across the political spectrum say that they believe a victory for President Obama is highly likely. Others say that it’s reckless to predict the future with any kind of certainty. Nate Silver of the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog explains to […] Read more »
Book Review Podcast: Nate Silver on the Art of Predictions
This week in The New York Times Book Review, Noam Scheiber reviews “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t,” by Nate Silver. … On this week’s podcast, Mr. Silver talks about his book. [cont.] New York Times Read more »