Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, explains the art of questionnaire design. Read more »
How Biased Do the Polls Need to Be for Romney to Win?
Back in 2000, before 538 and Pollster existed, we circulated a simulation of Electoral College outcomes using state polls. Our forecast was a likely Gore win, with a likelihood of 85%. We saw Florida as pivotal, and Gore as having an 89% chance of winning. Of course, the accuracy of […] Read more »
Did Hurricane Sandy Blow Romney Off Course?
If President Obama wins re-election on Tuesday, the historical memory of the race might turn on the role played by Hurricane Sandy. Already, some analysts are describing the storm as an “October surprise” that allowed Mr. Obama to regain his footing after stumbling badly in the first presidential debate and […] Read more »
The Pundits vs. Political Science: Debating the Impact of the First Debate
As Election 2012 heads down to the wire, it is fascinating to see how the pundits view this race compared to where the political scientists do (at least as I interpret them). They often seem to be looking at two different events. [cont.] Matthew Dickinson, Middlebury College Read more »
Bill Clinton Is Already a Sure Election-Day Winner
Whoever captures the White House on Nov. 6, the election season produced one clear winner: William Jefferson Clinton. … If the president is defeated he’ll remain a historic figure, the first black president. Much of his legacy, including the health-care bill and financial-regulation overhaul, will be shredded by Republicans. … […] Read more »
Reframing Turnout: Why 2008 Wasn’t As Unique As Many Imagine
The turnout assumptions of pollsters are increasingly under scrutiny, with the polls often showing Democrats with a persistent advantage in party-ID. Many hold that the polls assume an unrealistically high Democratic turnout, mainly based on the assumption that Democratic, young, and minority turnout was anomalously high in 2008 and can’t […] Read more »