My interests this cycle include the question about what percent of the vote will be white versus non-white and party ID in the exit poll and the margins among Independents. The attached document is an insider’s look at these issues across seven surveys released yesterday and today. [cont.] Bill McInturff, […] Read more »
How Google sees the race
… Harvard’s Seth Stephens-Davidowitz says there’s a better way. Stephens-Davidowitz, a Ph.D. student in economics, uses Google Insights for Search, an online tool for extracting data from the millions of daily Google searches, and then uses statistical tools to analyze the data to gain insights on who is likely to […] Read more »
A quick and easy guide to the polling wars
Over the last week, fights have broken out about the polls. Here’s all you need to know: [cont.] Jonathan Bernstein, Washington Post Read more »
Michael Gerson’s Latest
Gerson’s latest column contains a strange critique of quantitative approaches to elections and political science more generally. … There are two false dichotomies here. One is the measurement of opinion vs. the formation of opinion. … The second false dichotomy is between empirical inquiry and normative argument. [cont.] John Sides, […] Read more »
Election Update: Election Eve
Tomorrow night (or more likely Wednesday morning), someone is going to look pretty bad. It might be the pollsters who have continually insisted on using a 2008 model for their polls. Or it will be pollsters like us and other analysts who have criticized the 2008 model as unrealistic and […] Read more »
A heavily weighted coin flip
If there is one thing America’s right- and left-leaning media seem to agree on as election day looms, it is that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are locked in an exceedingly close and unpredictable race for the presidency. … Strangely, what might be the least controversial notion in contemporary American […] Read more »