The election has come and gone. … The result was a big victory for many number analysts. I wrote Tuesday about the polling aggregates circling around 303-332 electoral votes for Obama, with Florida being the closest state. Florida ended up being the tightest state. … It should not be forgotten, […] Read more »
2012 Poll Accuracy: After Obama, Models And Survey Science Won The Day
While the election’s biggest winner was President Barack Obama, the other victory on Tuesday night went to the careful application of reason, data and, yes, to the science of modern survey research. The losers were the amateur poll mavens who sought to “unskew” the polls and the pundits who saw […] Read more »
So, what happened?
… As a researcher, I’m sad to admit that I let my hopes overtake the data. The facts, based on well-conducted survey research, always pointed to an Obama win. But many Republicans, me included, tried to find a way to argue that the data didn’t mean what it said on […] Read more »
Election Results 2012: Nate Silver on How He Got It Right
Nate Silver and Megan Liberman discuss President Obama’s re-election win. Read more »
Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds
Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to […] Read more »
I Can Read Faces! My Wager On The Election Results
On the eve of Election Day, I am a happy man. Why is this, you ask? Because the fundamentals-based forecasts issued by almost a dozen political scientists before Labor Day are – in the aggregate – looking remarkably prescient. [cont.] Matthew Dickinson, Middlebury College Read more »