This week, I reported a story for The Economist that uncovered some very troubling details about pre-election polls being published by Center Street PAC, a new and self-described “non-partisan” super PAC that has pledged support for Democrats in key Senate contests. … The upshot to this narrow story about Center […] Read more »
The fundamentals and the midterm
The current conventional wisdom is for the midterm to be somewhat better than average for the president’s party in the House. (I set aside the Senate here.) The fundamentals doubt that, as we’ll see. The “fundamentals” provide a helpful baseline, even if “non-fundamentals” such as polling, candidate quality, unique issues, […] Read more »
Why Republicans Are Winning Swing Voters
After a summer of news that favored Democrats and with just two weeks until the midterms, a major new poll from The Times has found that swing voters are suddenly turning to the Republicans. The Times’s Nate Cohn explains what is behind the trend and what it could mean for […] Read more »
Why very high turnout is likely this midterm
Eight years ago, interest in midterm elections hit rock bottom. Just 37% of the voting eligible population turned out to vote – the lowest since World War II. Few could have predicted that America would have the highest midterm turnout in the last century just four years later. A look […] Read more »
The Midterms May Come Down to the Last Gust of Political Wind
One thing on which strategists in both parties agree is that next month’s elections will feature a very high turnout level, a continuation of the last two cycles: 2018 featured the largest midterm turnout in 104 years, 2020 the biggest presidential turnout in 120 years. In recent elections it’s become […] Read more »
Who will decide this election?
I know exactly how to get you to stop reading right now: We’re going to do a little arithmetic! It’s simple, so I hope you’ll bear with me. Each cycle, pollsters and pundits alike seem to derive great pleasure from anointing some segment of the electorate as the decider of […] Read more »