We’ve heard a lot lately about how wrong Republican polling was in 2012. Some of it was very wrong and even some of our polling was wrong, but it’s not all of it was always wrong and we seem to have been closer to right than many. This post is […] Read more »
The Secrets of the 2012 Campaign
… The Romney campaign was shocked on election night. Advisers had predicted that Romney would win decisively. That confidence was based largely on their polling, which was based on a generous interpretation of the electorate. The Obama campaign, by contrast, had several different streams of polling information coming in. [cont.] […] Read more »
Creating Public Opinion About Susan Rice
A recent poll from National Journal, a Washington D.C. “news magazine,” finds that a majority of the public would support the confirmation of current U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, as Secretary of State, if nominated by President Barack Obama. She would replace retiring Secretary Hillary Clinton. The […] Read more »
Was it hurricane Sandy that won it for President Obama?
Many forecasted that Mitt Romney would defeat President Obama in the 2012 presidential election. They were wrong. Some of those who were incorrect took it in stride and admitted as much. Others, such as Twitter sensation and National Review blogger Josh Jordan (aka NumbersMuncher), decided that their logic was sound, […] Read more »
Nate Silver says internal polls often mislead; I say: Depends on the pollster
Far be it from lil ole me to disagree with Nate Silver, the polling guru who has gained even more celebrity this cycle because he correctly foretold President Obama’s victory. But Silver, in his latest post criticizes how internal numbers can often mislead the media — and the candidate. Although […] Read more »
When Internal Polls Mislead, a Whole Campaign May Be To Blame
Pollsters can expect to take their share of blame when their campaigns lose, and this year has been no exception. Not long after Barack Obama and Democrats had a strong night on Nov. 6, Republicans began to complain publicly that the polls conducted by their campaigns and by affiliated groups […] Read more »