… The Obama campaign combined three levels of data to peg the state of the race against Mitt Romney. The campaign conducted aggregated battleground polls for message testing, individual state tracking polls by multiple pollsters to understand where the campaign was standing in each state, and individual state parallel surveys […] Read more »
Party ID is not party registration
A common pastime of poll pundits and readers is analyzing the partisan makeup of respondents to a particular poll and how the opinions of each partisan group are moving and changing. Often lost within this analysis is the fact that there are two different ways of discussing partisanship. [cont.] MassINC […] Read more »
How Technology Changed Public Opinion Research in 2012
Among the many takeaways from the 2012 election cycle is that public opinion research must evolve with the American electorate. As more Americans use the Internet and mobile devices as part of their daily lives, harnessing these technologies is increasingly among the best ways to get an accurate read on […] Read more »
Election Reopens Debate Over Online Polling
Americans’ increasing reliance on electronic sources of information and methods of communication led some pollsters and media outlets to embrace online polling this year, and its fairly accurate performance in predicting the results of the election is reigniting a longstanding feud within the survey-research field. … The performance of Internet […] Read more »
Exclusive: The Internal Polls That Made Mitt Romney Think He’d Win
It’s no secret that the Romney campaign believed it was headed for victory on Election Day. … Less well-known, however, are the details of the polls that led Romney to believe he was so close to the presidency. Which other swing states did Romney believe he was leading in, and […] Read more »
Authors at Google: Nate Silver
Nate Silver joins Hal Varian (Google’s Chief Economist) to talk about his book “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t” and answer Googler questions. Read more »