The 2012 election is in the books, and as we head into the new term filled with new elections, there are polling lessons we should take with us. Yet, as this list of the top five polling rules from 2012 will demonstrate, there will always be exceptions to the rule. […] Read more »
Why the Election Polls Missed the Mark
… Some pollsters and media organizations think the practice of averaging polls that survey different universes or are conducted using different methodologies is bunk. They warn that considering cheaper, less rigorous polling on the same plane as live-caller polls that randomly contact landline and cell-phone respondents allows the averages to […] Read more »
2012 Polling Accuracy: Right Winner, But Different Trends
… While the public polls collectively predicted an Obama victory, they also understated Obama’s margins, both nationally and in a half-dozen battleground states. And, perhaps more importantly, some polls told very different stories about how much voter preferences shifted over the final weeks of the campaign. [cont.] Mark Blumenthal, Huffington […] Read more »
Pollsters’ Cell Phone Problem Getting Worse
The percentage of adults without a landline telephone rose again during the first half of 2012, according to a new report released last week, continuing to present pollsters with unprecedented challenges. The report, compiled by the Center for Disease Control, shows that fully 34 percent of adult Americans lived in […] Read more »
Freedom to Publish Opinion Polls Study Released
The World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) and the Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP) have released the results of the fifth worldwide study on the Freedom to Publish Opinion Poll Results. … While more and more countries are conducting surveys in general and pre-election […] Read more »
Gallup papers give glimpse into US polling history
Groundbreaking pollster George Gallup is known for founding the survey organization that tracks the nation’s opinion of the president, but he began his career with a more local concern: getting his mother-in-law elected to statewide office. … The campaign is recounted in a collection of papers that Gallup’s family donated […] Read more »