I am just back from two weeks in Greece. A visit to the cradle of democracy and contemplation of events Before the Common Era provides perspective. Besides, Greece is beautiful and retired people get to travel in October. But so much back here is messier now than when I left. […] Read more »
Why it matters if the polls miss again
I’m cutting to the chase: We have no idea if polls are overestimating Democrats this year. I could spend this column trying to read a crystal ball, pretending I have some sort of special insight, but I don’t, and there are plenty of others doing that. We’ve gotten better this […] Read more »
There are a ton of midterm election polls. Here’s a guide for how to read them.
Pre-election polls came in for a drubbing following the 2020 election after underestimating former president Donald Trump’s vote margin by about five percentage points, the highest error in at least 20 years according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research. One possible cause of 2020 errors was something the […] Read more »
The skyrocketing support for legal marijuana
When same-sex marriage was legalized nationwide, political and social scientists noted the societal shift on the issue had been remarkable — even unparalleled. Before the Supreme Court enshrined the right into law in 2015, Americans had moved sharply in favor of it, and they have continued to do so since […] Read more »
Too close to call? When is a dead heat really a dead heat?
The headline in the Washington Post Metro section on Oct. 22 was clear: “Poll shows Luria, Kiggans in dead heat in final leg of crucial race.” … My immediate take was that, based solely on the poll’s ballot test, Luria is an underdog and in deep trouble. That’s because at […] Read more »
Pollsters Try to Learn From Mistakes of 2016 and 2020 Elections
Pollsters this year are taking a range of steps to try to improve the accuracy of their surveys, after significantly understating support for Donald Trump and other GOP candidates in the past two presidential elections. Strategists and pollsters in both parties are worried about whether the steps will work. … […] Read more »