Recent polling clearly shows that Americans are much more accepting of same-sex marriage than they were a decade ago. All of the major national polls now find more supporters than opponents of same-sex marriage. But there is no consensus in the polling as to just how many Americans now actually […] Read more »
The Real Reason Public Opinion Doesn’t Work
… “Public opinion” is barely real; most of the time, on most issues, change the wording of the question and you’ll get entirely different answers. At best, “public opinion” as such is passive. And in politics, passive doesn’t get results. Action works. [cont.] Jonathan Bernstein, A plain blog about politics Read more »
Americans Secretly Oppose Gay Marriage
If you’ve struggled to find humor in politics recently, rejoice. At least the skewed-polls people are still around. Yesterday, Chris Stirewalt blogged for Fox News that polls overstate support for gay marriage. Voicing a similar belief, leading social conservative Gary Bauer showed little concern over public opinion, telling Fox’s Chris […] Read more »
Poll questions shift public views on global warming
… After every hurricane, heat wave or hullabaloo over climate science, the polling results come, watched breathlessly for some shift in U.S. public opinion about global warming. All the hand-wringing may not have amounted to anything, suggests one long-term look at all those polls. The majority of the public pretty […] Read more »
Gun Counts Can Be Hit-or-Miss
Lawmakers in statehouses and the U.S. Capitol who are debating proposed new firearm laws are lacking some key data: How many people in the U.S. own guns, and how many households contain guns? Some surveys suggest only 50 million Americans own guns. Others, depending on how they are interpreted, point […] Read more »
Intrade, We Hardly Knew Ye
… Beyond the gambling fun, Intrade was believed to be very useful for those interested in forecasting elections. Polls have the disadvantage of being meaningful and accurate only within a few months—or weeks—of an election, since most voters aren’t well aware of the candidates or issues until then. By contrast, […] Read more »