Sometimes, people respond in strange ways to survey questions. For a recent project with Jim Stimson and Elizabeth Coggins, I spent a fair amount of time analyzing data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Here’s a fun nugget from my exploration: a sizable proportion (21 percent) of respondents both […] Read more »
Avoiding a Repeat of 2012 GOP Polling Collapse With Adaptive Sampling
… General election polling has historically been accurate because the rates at which different groups in the electorate turn out have been predictable across similar elections. Mid-terms looked a lot like other mid-terms and presidential years looked a lot like presidential years. This all changed over the last three election […] Read more »
Gun rights advocate shreds gun polling on CNN
Larry Pratt, the executive director of the Gun Owners of America, appeared on Wolf Blitzer’s “Situation Room” to debate the struggle on Capitol Hill over gun-related legislation stemming from the Newtown massacre. … Pratt takes issue with results showing “that a huge majority of Gun Owners of America members and […] Read more »
Gun rights activist dismisses polls
The chief of a power gun owners group said Wednesday he doesn’t trust the methodology of polls showing an overwhelming number of Americans favoring universal background checks on gun sales. “I’m not sure I believe any polls at this time. I don’t think they know how to ask the right […] Read more »
Briefing paper: Social Media and Public Opinion
The use of social media to measure public opinion faces major unresolved challenges. While potentially promising for trend-spotting, modeling or qualitative analysis, current research indicates that social media is not appropriate for quantitative analysis of broader public attitudes, particularly when the research aim is to estimate population values. … Difficulties […] Read more »
The debate over a path to citizenship is resolved among the public, if not in Congress
As the renewed debate over the nation’s immigration laws continues on Capitol Hill, this much is clear: Most Americans favor creating a path to citizenship for the estimated 11 million immigrants living in the country illegally. And the more Americans hear about specific requirements a path to citizenship would involve, […] Read more »