The Rev. Andrew M. Greeley, who died on Thursday, was a creative and dedicated social scientist who taught economists and others that scholars help resolve controversies by making careful measurements. … Father Greeley acknowledged that surveys have flaws but explained that conventional wisdom often has those flaws in spades. “Everybody […] Read more »
Gallup explains what went wrong in 2012
The Gallup Poll’s misfire in the 2012 election was caused by a variety of defects in the way the firm conducts surveys, according to the organization’s top pollster, who provided the most detailed explanation to date of how the firm plans to improve their polling accuracy in future elections. Flanked […] Read more »
If you pay them money, partisans will tell you the truth
One of the most infamous and dispiriting findings in recent political science research is that partisans can’t even agree on basic facts, at least when those facts bear on politics. … But there’s always been a question about how serious the respondents in these studies are. Maybe the Republicans in […] Read more »
The Survey Monkey on Our Back: Where Our Addiction to Polls May Take Us
Gallup’s mea culpa this week and yet another release of 2016 trial heats reminds us that the biggest threat to the health of public opinion polling may not be shrinking response rates or the rising cost of dialing cellphones, but our growing addiction to its results. … Velocity and critical […] Read more »
Obama’s Data Team Totally Schooled Gallup
… But given the collaborative effort and many moving parts of a modern presidential campaign, it can be difficult to isolate the data team’s contribution. One great example, though, is the intricate mathematical models of swing states that [Dan] Wagner and colleagues built that were meant to offer an alternative […] Read more »
Gallup Nears Settlement Deal With DOJ In Overbilling Case
The Gallup Organization has reached “an agreement in principle” with the Justice Department to settle civil allegations that the polling company overbilled the U.S. government by providing inflated estimates for federal contracts, according to a new court filing. [cont.] Carrie Johnson, NPR Read more »