We start with three different types of data … Voter Intention Polling Data … Fundamental Data … Prediction Market Data … One simple question motivates our method, what combination of these three key data types creates the most accurate, relevant, and timely forecasts (i.e., the most efficient and useful forecasts […] Read more »
How 16 Words Move Immigration Poll
From gun control to taxation to the environment, you can be sure most polls will show a familiar Democrat-Republican, liberal-conservative split. That’s what makes the responses on immigration in this week’s Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll so noteworthy. According to the poll, there is broad consensus across many groups to […] Read more »
Gallup’s Open Book
It isn’t unusual for individuals, organizations, or even political parties to make mistakes, but it is unusual, certainly in Washington, to see anyone own up to them. What is truly extraordinary is for any person or group to conduct, release, and publicize an exhaustive research project detailing what went wrong […] Read more »
Gallup blew the 2012 election. Can the polling firm bounce back?
If Nate Silver was the winner of last year’s presidential election, then Gallup was the loser. The long-time leader in polling consistently showed Mitt Romney ahead, sometimes by a decisive margin. And then President Barack Obama won by 3.9 points—5 points off of Gallup’s final margin. In response, Gallup launched […] Read more »
Gallup’s 2012 election polling errors were only part of the problem
We all know that Gallup screwed the pooch in the 2012 presidential election. It had Mitt Romney leading through most of October and in its final poll by a point – a 5pt error. … It’s worth the time, though, to point out, as I have and Gallup did on […] Read more »
Pollster Breaches Thin Line in LA Mayoral Campaign
Politics is a rough-and-tumble business, with campaigns bringing whatever resources they can to the table. But are there limits to what consultants, particularly pollsters, should do for their clients? I raise that question after reading a May 18 memo from Celinda Lake and four other members of her firm, Lake […] Read more »