A poll published over the weekend suggesting that a majority of Scots will vote for independence Sept. 18 has both tanked the British pound and put the issue squarely in the international spotlight. … But political prediction markets, in which people bet on the likely outcome, are all about evaluating […] Read more »
Republicans keep edge in latest Senate midterm estimate
If the midterm elections were held today, we might all be in for a late night. Republicans remain more likely to control the Senate, but that estimate is underpinned by very tight races throughout. Many key Senate battleground contests in our latest Battleground Tracker model show just a point or […] Read more »
Video: Is GOP A Lock To Retake The Senate?
George Stephanopoulus talks to Nate Silver about the new FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast. Watch more news videos | Latest world news Read more »
Polls Show Path Of Least Resistance To GOP Majority
Pollsters are picking up the pace after a slow start in this midterm election season. Sunday featured the release of a trio of NBC News/Marist polls of the Senate races in Arkansas, Kentucky and Colorado, while the online polling firm YouGov released polls of almost every Senate race in conjunction […] Read more »
Why election forecasters disagree about who will win the Senate
With the 2014 midterms now just two months away, there’s been a recent proliferation of models attempting to forecast the battle for the Senate — models that are showing different results … Very broadly, the most important differences relate to “how uncertain the models are about forecasts for every different […] Read more »
Video: Breaking down the 2014 Senate forecast
The fate of the Senate rests on several key states. Will the Democrats hang on and keep the Senate, and how will this week’s developments in Kansas play into it? Steve Kornacki digs into the numbers with The New York Times’ Nate Cohn. Up with Steve Kornacki Read more »