On Monday, Nate Silver was on the show to discuss FiveThirtyEight’s midterm forecast, which favors the GOP, and dismissed Sam Wang’s forecast heavily favoring Democrats. We follow up with Sam Wang on his model, and what leads different statistical wranglers to come to such different conclusions. The Brian Lehrer Show […] Read more »
Democrats Are Seeing More Daylight in Path to Senate Control
A few months ago, the Democratic path to a Senate majority looked long and arduous. It has started to look easier. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Read more »
Google Acquires Online Poll Company Polar
In a move that could shore up the dire shortage of opinions on the Internet, Google has acquired Polar, an online poll company. The deal was announced on Polar’s website and through Google’s social network, Google Plus. CONT. Conor Dougherty, New York Times Read more »
Democrats Now Have a Seventy-Per-Cent Chance of Retaining Control of the Senate
… Because polls have better predictive value than fundamentals do, it would seem prudent to ask what an unadulterated poll-based snapshot of the Senate race looks like. … But can a snapshot of today’s polls really tell us that much about an election held eight weeks from now? As it […] Read more »
Registered Voter Polls Will (Usually) Overrate Democrats
… Polls of so-called likely voters are almost always more favorable to Republicans than those that survey the broader sample of all registered voters or all American adults. Likely voter polls also tend to provide more reliable predictions of election results, especially in midterm years. Whereas polls of all registered […] Read more »
This is how big a drag President Obama is on Senate Democrats
It’s been obvious for a while now that President Obama was going to be a net negative for Democrats trying to hold onto control of the Senate on Nov. 4. But, just how big a drag he actually is has come into focus over the last few days — thanks […] Read more »