The headlines Wednesday said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swept to a surprising and convincing victory in the Israeli election Tuesday after his Likud party won at least five more seats in parliament than its chief rival. But the victory wasn’t really that overwhelming because of the subtle nature of the […] Read more »
How to Be Misled by Polls, Hillary Clinton Email Edition
Has the controversy over Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal email account hurt her in the polls? You might think so if you read a CNN article published Monday night, which reported that “unfavorable views of Hillary Clinton are on the rise” after disclosure of her use of the email […] Read more »
Why you should ignore the Republican presidential primary polls
This week saw another poll about the Republican presidential primary — this one by NBC … — that got plenty of discussion. We learned, for example, what percentage of Republicans “could see themselves supporting” each of 14 different candidates. I am not going to tell you those percentages, because they really don’t […] Read more »
Value of presidential polls? Not much, and not for a while
Wondering who’s up and who’s down in the 2016 presidential race? Go for a run, tend the garden, clean the closet, remove the lint from the dryer, and then do it all over again because it’s going to be a long time before the polls will tell us much about […] Read more »
Why the betting markets disagree with the polls
The betting markets, the pollsters, even the voters are predicting the Conservatives will edge ahead by May 7. However, on the latest numbers, Labour are the likely winners. What’s behind this contradiction, and what does it mean for campaign strategy? I conducted an experiment which throws some light on the […] Read more »
Dueling Polls Create Illusion of Public Opinion on Netanyahu’s Address to Congress
A CNN/ORC poll released last month reported that by a two-to-one margin, Americans opposed congressional leaders’ invitation to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress without first notifying the president. Just 33 percent said it was the right thing to do; 63 percent said it was wrong. A few […] Read more »