Bloomberg recently announced its latest poll found that “nearly 40% of likely [Iowa] Republican caucus-goers consider Islam inherently violent.” While a majority (53%) consider the religion “inherently peaceful,” the article’s concern was with the substantial number of GOP voters who seem to have a negative view of Islam. By contrast, […] Read more »
Mystery Solved: The Man Behind a G.O.P. Trend-Setting Poll
The source of the extensive, private polling data on the 2016 Republican presidential field was shrouded in secrecy. But its conclusions were widely felt. … Now, the identity of the wealthy Republican donor who commissioned the polling is no longer a mystery: CONT. Michael Barbaro, New York Times Read more »
Why Early Senate Polling Is Usually Useless
I never pay too much attention to early polls, since snapshots of a race more than 18 months before Election Day can be misleading. And political parties ought to be careful about crowing too loudly about early polls for fear someone will look too closely into them. CONT. Stuart Rothenberg, […] Read more »
Reporting on polls is improving, but could still be better
On Jan. 31, the New York Times (in print and on-line) had a fascinating Page One story about opinions of Americans on global warming, primarily as a function of party identification. The continuation page of the article had a long … discussion of the methodology of the poll, and on […] Read more »
Nate Silver sounds off on 2014, 2016 & FiveThirtyEight’s haters
… Recently, Salon spoke over the phone with Silver, discussing lessons from 2014, the latest bits of suspect conventional wisdom emanating from D.C., what Silver thinks of his critics, and which GOP governor may be flying under the radar when it comes to nabbing the party’s nomination in 2016. CONT. […] Read more »
How Russia props up Putin in the polls
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s popularity appears to resist the laws of political physics. Despite the price of oil sinking below $50 a barrel and the Russian economy falling into a tailspin, Putin’s approval ratings hover above 80 percent, seemingly defying gravity. But the numbers should not be taken at face […] Read more »