A conversation with Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll. Read more »
What You Need To Know About Early Polls And How To Read Them
The early 2016 presidential polls are flying, which means the complaining about polls is in full swing, too. … Polls always have weaknesses. Early polls can be worse. And they’re all spun every which way by every pundit — and politician — with vocal cords. If you’re baffled by what […] Read more »
Fox Failed Statistics in Explaining Its G.O.P. Debate Decision
Will Rick Perry miss the main Republican debate Thursday night because he’s unpopular or because he’s unlucky? This turns out to be a far more difficult question that you might realize, and it’s one that apparently eludes the Fox News decision desk. CONT. Justin Wolfers (U. of Michigan), New York […] Read more »
Trump’s Shaky Electoral Foundation
Though Trump is surging in national polling, that hasn’t always translated into success once voters start casting ballots. Donald Trump still has a way to go to become the next Rudolph Giuliani—or even the next Rick Perry. Though Trump has surged to the lead of the GOP field in national […] Read more »
How Fox News determined who qualified for prime-time GOP debate
Based on an average of the five most recent national polls, the candidates invited to be on stage for the 9:00 P.M. ET debate will be: Donald Trump (23.4%), Jeb Bush (12.0%), Scott Walker (10.2%), Mike Huckabee (6.6%), Ben Carson (5.8%), Ted Cruz (5.4%), Marco Rubio (5.4%), Rand Paul (4.8%), […] Read more »
How to Make Sense of Donald Trump’s Perch Atop the Polls
It has been more than two weeks since Donald Trump questioned whether John McCain should be considered a war hero, and he has largely withstood the first of what will be many rounds of scrutiny and criticism from party elites and journalists. The polls, which now fully reflect the aftermath […] Read more »