Exit pollsters do their work in a few short days, but the information they glean dominates the political conversation for years. … But now, as more voters cast ballots early or by mail and polling those voters becomes more costly and potentially less reliable, the exit polls are getting more […] Read more »
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
… But the problem isn’t just that the national polls at this stage in the race lack empirical power to predict the nomination; it’s also that they describe a fiction. I don’t mean to suggest that Donald Trump’s support in the polls is “fake.” I have no doubt that some […] Read more »
This is not the answer on reporting polls, but there is one
In a piece that posted today, the respected Columbia Journalism Review argued, according to the headline: “Why political journalists shouldn’t report on internal polling.” This is obviously wrong. But the piece, written by freelancer Steve Friess, makes some excellent points without exactly reaching the conclusion contained in the headline. With […] Read more »
Why political journalists shouldn’t report on internal polling
… Internal polling is “being reported more often because it’s really easy journalism,” said Thomas Patterson, Bradlee Professor of Government and the Press at the Shorenstein Center at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. “In this environment when people are trying to crank out a lot of stuff, sometimes they do […] Read more »
Poll expert explains the limits of polls
Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute of Public Opinion, describes why he’s wary of TV networks using polls to determine debate invitations. Reliable Sources, CNN Read more »
New research shows just how much presidents try to manipulate public opinion
The political scientists James Druckman and Lawrence Jacobs have just published a book, “Who Governs? Presidents, Public Opinion, and Manipulation.” Early reviews call it “a breakthrough” and “a fascinating study” whose “picture is not pretty.” I talked with Druckman and Jacobs about the book via e-mail. An edited version of […] Read more »