Ever since Donald Trump has risen to the top of the polls, Republican strategists have questioned whether those polls might be overestimating his support. There is evidence to support that theory. … The public polls can be misleading if nonvoting adults have substantially different views from primary voters. Usually, the […] Read more »
How CNN’s Debate Math is Hurting Carly Fiorina
Carly Fiornia still has a math problem. Despite a stand-out performance in the Aug. 6 Republican undercard forum hosted by Fox News and Facebook, and rising poll numbers ever since, Fiorina still may not be granted a spot at CNN’s Sept. 16 debate. CONT. J. Ann Selzer, Bloomberg Politics Recent […] Read more »
Here’s why Donald Trump won’t win the Republican presidential nomination
Donald Trump’s authoritative lead in early polling in the 2016 Republican race for the presidential nomination has left Americans excited, confused and afraid. Trump hasn’t been out of first place in national polling since he filed as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission in mid-July. Most polls have him […] Read more »
The Rise and Fall of Shooting-Star Candidates
… What is happening now in the Republican primary is not that different from what happened in 2012. And despite the excitement and attention that Mr. Trump is generating, others who were in his same position four years ago fell out of the spotlight after several weeks of being the […] Read more »
Trump’s in the lead — but these polls are junk
The political story of the summer is Donald Trump’s polling. But the political story of the year is the disastrous condition of polling in the age of the Internet and the cellphone, not just here but worldwide. How can we reconcile the two? We can’t. CONT. John Podhoretz, New York […] Read more »
Are the polls skewed?
Donald Trump is on top in Iowa, Ben Carson is hot on his heels, and Bernie Sanders has flown past Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. That’s the snapshot polls captured this week. It’s a far cry from the Bush-Clinton horse race that many had predicted going into the 2016 campaign […] Read more »