… Americans have watched for months—with 14 more months to go—as the poll numbers for Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Bush, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Bernie Sanders and other White House hopefuls have gyrated up and down, depending on the ebb and flow of the news and the debates. These […] Read more »
Who’s left out in a Web-only survey and how it affects results
Survey research is rapidly moving online – it’s cheaper, faster, provides greater flexibility in questionnaire design, and often has substantial advantages in data quality compared with phone surveys. … Surveys that include only those who use the internet (and are willing to take surveys online) run the risk of producing […] Read more »
The heyday of political polls has long passed
… What was true of Giuliani’s popularity early in the 2008 cycle was true of Howard Dean’s at the same stage in the 2004 cycle. It was true of Rick Perry’s, Newt Gingrich’s, and Herman Cain’s early in the 2012 cycle. Anyone can be the “front-runner” in an election most […] Read more »
No Drama Obama
President Obama’s middling job approval rating has been quite steady over the last few months, devoid of much movement outside of the relatively subtle shifts seen from poll to poll. This is nothing new: Based on Gallup’s polling, Barack Obama’s approval rating has the smallest standard deviation of any modern […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton Is Stuck In A Poll-Deflating Feedback Loop
It’s the candidates who play the long game, and play by the establishment’s rules, who usually win presidential nominations. … The short run is different. The short run can be crazy. Feedback loops can produce self-reinforcing (but usually temporary) booms and busts of support. … Candidates can just as easily […] Read more »
How polls have changed since last debate: Outsiders up, establishment down
At Wednesday night’s Republican presidential debate, 11 candidates will take the stage in an unexpected order – with the outsiders very much on the inside. That’s because they have broken away from the rest of the field since the first debate. CONT. Kevin Schaul, Washington Post Recent polls: GOP presidential […] Read more »