It’s the candidates who play the long game, and play by the establishment’s rules, who usually win presidential nominations. …
The short run is different. The short run can be crazy. Feedback loops can produce self-reinforcing (but usually temporary) booms and busts of support. …
Candidates can just as easily get caught — or entrap themselves — in self-reinforcing cycles of negative media attention and declining poll numbers. Hillary Clinton looks like she’s stuck in one of these ruts right now. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight
Recent polls: Democratic preference | Hillary Clinton ratings