The British Polling Council welcomes the publication today of the report of the Independent Inquiry into the performance of the polls in the May 2015 general election. … The principal objective of the Council is to promote transparency in the reporting of opinion polls, and its members are required to […] Read more »
When Public Opinion Doesn’t Matter: U.S. Polls on Cuba
With President Obama’s recent visit to Cuba, there is renewed interest in how the American public views the efforts at rapprochement. A Gallup poll conducted twelve years ago, and a CBS poll just over a year ago, help to put current public opinion measures in perspective. CONT. David W. Moore, […] Read more »
When surveys are really bad
We dissect the failings of political pollsters at length — and there’s much to criticize. However, those of us in politics face a test each Election Day. We’re either right or wrong, and because some of our surveys become public, folks know it. … Commercial market researchers face no similar […] Read more »
Sanders is Best Candidate to Lead Democrats to Victory in 2016
A memo from Tulchin Research, pollsters for the Sanders campaign: With the second half of the 2016 presidential primary season upon us, Democrats must now more than ever seriously consider which prospective nominee – Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton – is best positioned to lead Democrats to victory in November. […] Read more »
Why the polls get it wrong
Embarrassing polling flubs seem increasingly common. Going into the Michigan primary, surveys showed Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Bernie Sanders among likely voters by double digits, only to have Sanders pull off a stunning two-point victory on March 8. A similar forecasting failure befell the British elections last year, when pollsters […] Read more »
Yes, you can trust international surveys. Mostly.
How do you know when research is based on falsified data? That’s one of the challenges faced throughout statistical research. Noble Kuriakose and I authored a paper (forthcoming in the Statistical Journal of the IAOS) that outlines a technique to detect potential fraud in public opinion surveys. … A useful […] Read more »