The 2016 presidential election is well under way and understanding “the Latino vote” will be more important than ever. Yet the stories about how Latinos behave politically will often be contradictory, confusing, and outright nonsensical. The media is always eager to publish stories associated with data because numbers bring a […] Read more »
Chicago and Race: Perception, Polling and Reality
… Here at The Times’s polling department, we often try to assess the state of race relations and discrimination in the United States. It’s a difficult task because conversations about race often rely on coded language or careful discussion, which means there are certain things we can know through surveys, […] Read more »
Those polls showing Donald Trump catching up with Hillary Clinton: Really?
A raft of polls in recent days has shown a sharply tighter presidential race, with Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump shrinking to just a couple of points. Those polls have generated a lot of questions: Just how reliable is polling this far in advance of an election? What’s causing […] Read more »
How the Media Fails the Public in Reporting Election Polling
… Many years ago, before network news and the big newspapers poured most of their resources into garnering clicks, reporters and writers tended to focus on what was happening in the presidential race, and not what they hoped would happen. All that has changed in the past 10 years or […] Read more »
Why Is Hillary Clinton Suddenly Tied in the Polls With a Widely Reviled Demagogue?
Donald Trump is an electoral disaster — the most unpopular major-party nominee in the history of polling. The most hated by women, Hispanics, and “the blacks.” Heck, more than a third of Republicans can’t stand him. He broke the GOP in two, and it may never be whole again. There […] Read more »
Polls Show Trump Winning in a Clinton Showdown, and They May Be Right
For months, Republican rivals to Donald Trump were proclaiming that nominating him would be an electoral disaster, given the assumption he could not win a general election. Pundits have been saying the same thing, noting that Trump’s historically high unfavorable ratings, especially among women and Hispanics, would doom his general […] Read more »