… We have been fielding just one question since the start of the year: Who are you most likely to vote for in the upcoming presidential election? With the answers of: Definitely Republican candidate, Likely Republican candidate, Likely Democratic candidate, Definitely Democratic candidate, and not voting. This question focuses on […] Read more »
The polls are not broken. Say it again: The polls are not broken.
Are the polls broken? A steady stream of articles over the past nine months has examined the challenges of the polling industry, pointing to highly visible failures, the rise of cell phones and the decline of response rates. … I’ve examined all the presidential general election polling since 2000 — […] Read more »
The State Of The Polls, 2016
Two years ago, in advance of the 2014 midterms and in conjunction with the release of FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, I wrote an article headlined “Is The Polling Industry In Stasis Or In Crisis?” It pointed out a seeming contradiction: Although there were lots of reasons to be worried about the […] Read more »
Clinton Lead Over Trump Would Grow Without Sanders in The Race
The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Hillary Clinton with a narrow three-point lead over Donald Trump, 46 percent to 43 percent. But if Bernie Sanders were out of the race the NBC News political unit estimates her lead would likely be much larger, perhaps up around eight points, […] Read more »
A sharp exchange over election-year polling offers thoughts for the rest of us
In a political season marked by nonstop polling, a lively exchange took place recently about the state of public opinion research and what to believe about of all the numbers describing the state of the race. The context for the discussion was set by a series of national and state […] Read more »
2016 Hillary vs. 1992 Bill: How does their polling compare?
As Bill Clinton navigated his way around table corners and selfie-snapping voters at a café in New Mexico this week, he ran into a reporter who asked a question being pondered by pundits: How can Hillary Clinton boost her general election poll numbers against Donald Trump — who already appears […] Read more »