Donald J. Trump has hired a new pollster to help him capture an elusive Republican victory in New York, his home state, two people briefed on the move said. The pollster, John McLaughlin, will be focusing exclusively on New York, polling to determine what type of climb Mr. Trump would […] Read more »
How to read the election polls — and keep your sanity — in two easy steps
… What exactly is a “random walk”? And why would it matter to ordinary people following the campaign? Answering these questions produces two simple but important lessons for reading election polls. A random walk means this: It is very hard to predict the future movement in some quantity from its […] Read more »
There is no ‘Trump Bump’ in the polls — just a growing lead for the Democrats
Lots of commentary has accompanied the “Trump Bump,” as the alleged bump in Donald Trump’s poll numbers has been called. While most polls had Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, up by a solid 10-point margin as late as March, this lead seemed to have shrunk. … Is this shift […] Read more »
Hispanic Voters Will Decide Bernie Sanders’s Fate in California
Three recent surveys from highly rated polling firms (Marist College, Field and Public Policy Institute of California) show Bernie Sanders just 2 points behind Hillary Clinton in California. Clinton is ahead by double digits, however, in other polls, including one that has her up by 18 percentage points. It’s making […] Read more »
California: In USC/LA Times Poll, Clinton 49%, Sanders 39% (Perhaps)
Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 49-39% among likely voters in California’s Democratic presidential primary, according to the latest USC/Los Angeles Times Poll. Or, not. According to the same poll, it could be that Sanders and Clinton are essentially tied at 44-43%. Confusing? You bet. CONT. Calbuzz Read more »
Trump, Superdelegates, Primaries: How Do Americans Want to Pick a President?
According to the Associated Press, a new poll shows that most Americans feel “frustrated,” “helpless,” and “angry,” and that they want the presidential nomination system changed. However, the link between voter malaise and desire for changes is at best tenuous. And whatever the reasons for the discontent, the proposed changes […] Read more »