With both parties’ presidential nomination campaigns settled, the 2016 general election match-up between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump is coming into focus. Central to these discussions is the support that the candidates are likely to draw from Latino voters. Yet, as has been the case in recent election […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls may be larger than it seems. Here’s why.
… In 2012, many polls underestimated how many minorities would vote and how many would vote for Obama. … In 2016, the country is even more diverse. Pollsters need to take steps to more accurately estimate the political attitudes and behavior of black, Latino and Asian American voters. CONT. Gabriel […] Read more »
Exploring the difference in participants’ factual knowledge between online and in-person survey modes
Over the past decade, an increasing number of scholars and professionals have turned to the Internet to gather samples of subjects for research ranging from public opinion surveys to experiments in the social sciences. While there has been a focus on whether online samples are representative and accurate, fewer studies […] Read more »
Forget the candidates, fact-check the polls
“Majority think Trump’s judge comments racist.” That’s the headline about a poll from last week. It’s not false. But it’s not the whole truth, either. To see why, let’s take a closer look at some of the issues with the data. CONT. John H. Johnson (Edgeworth Economics), The Hill Read more »
EU Referendum survey using new approach to undertaking polls and survey research
On Tuesday 21st June NatCen Social Research will publish the results of a new opinion survey about the European Union, including an indication of how people intend to vote in the EU Referendum on June 23rd. The results come from a new panel survey run by NatCen based on people […] Read more »
UK: Statement on polling methodology and turnout tests in the EU referendum
With polling day in the EU referendum fast approaching, and with our polls showing more voters making up their minds, the time has come for us to introduce some changes in the analysis and reporting of our polls. In order to be as transparent as possible, we are announcing these […] Read more »