Hillary Clinton continues to poll strongly in surveys conducted after the Democratic National Convention, which show her having received a convention bounce and gaining a meaningful lead over Donald Trump. … There are some hints that Clinton’s post-convention lead over Trump will eventually settle in at about 7 percentage points, […] Read more »
Pessimism Might Not Be a Winning Bet for Republicans
A political lifetime ago, Ronald Reagan’s pollster seized on this question to frame the campaign’s argument during his 1980 presidential campaign: “Is the country headed in the right direction, or is it on the wrong track?” … In the New York Times-CBS News poll for July, 26 percent of respondents […] Read more »
Flashpoints in Polling
Can polls be trusted? This question is on the minds of seemingly everyone who follows the 2016 campaign, though it is hardly unique to this election cycle. The answer is complicated, thanks to myriad challenges facing polling and the fact that pollsters have reacted to these challenges in disparate ways. […] Read more »
Clinton’s Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump’s
Initial polls conducted after the Democratic National Convention suggest that Hillary Clinton has received a convention bounce. In fact, it appears likely that Clinton’s bounce will exceed Donald Trump’s, which measured at 3 to 4 percentage points. Thus, Clinton will potentially exit the conventions in a stronger position than she […] Read more »
Now, Get Ready for an Unpredictable General Election
… Both sides, and much of the press, will zealously follow the polls. Some cautionary notes for these junkies are offered by Doug Usher of Purple Strategies, a bipartisan company that conducts online and other surveys for Bloomberg Politics. Don’t pay much attention to the plethora of polls in the […] Read more »
New Consumer Survey Contains a Big Hint That Clinton Will Win the Election
A new question added to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers could turn out to be more accurate than ordinary opinion polls in predicting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. In June and July, respondents to the monthly survey were asked who they expected to become the next […] Read more »