The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that a Major League Baseball player will strike […] Read more »
Trump’s Slump Deepens In The Polls
There’s no longer any doubt that the party conventions have shifted the presidential election substantially toward Hillary Clinton. She received a larger bounce from her convention than Donald Trump got from his, but Trump has continued to poll so poorly in state and national surveys over the past two days […] Read more »
Trump’s Up 3! Clinton’s Up 9! Why you shouldn’t be fooled by polling bounces.
You sort of know there is a convention bounce that you should sort of ignore, but why? What’s actually in a polling bump? … Recent research, however, suggests that swings in the polls can often be attributed not to changes in voter intention but in changing patterns of survey nonresponse: […] Read more »
Why a Meaningful Shift in the Trump-Clinton Race May Be at Hand
Hillary Clinton has a large and perhaps growing lead in the nation and in many of the predominantly white battleground states where Donald Trump was thought to have his best shot, according to a wave of new surveys released in the last two days. … In general, it’s not worth […] Read more »
Can a rising Obama help Hillary Clinton?
President Barack Obama’s approval rating got its own convention bump, and now stands at its highest level since just before his second inauguration in 2013. Obama’s approval rating dipped to 50% after the Republican convention, but has risen to 54% in the wake of his party’s convention, with 45% disapproval, […] Read more »
How Does the Media Choose Which Election Polls to Cover?
This being election season in the United States, we are absolutely inundated with polling data, with everyone from Gallup to Rasmussen to FiveThirtyEight providing daily (or even more frequent) updates on the state of the Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump horse race. But not all polls are created equal, it seems: News […] Read more »