There is a 19-year-old black man in Illinois who has no idea of the role he is playing in this election. He is sure he is going to vote for Donald J. Trump. … He’s a panelist on the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll, which has emerged as the […] Read more »
Why Pew Research Center Changed Its Strategy This Election
As some poll watchers have observed, Pew Research Center has shifted its approach for the 2016 election cycle, focusing on fewer, larger political surveys, new work with our American Trends Panel and a continued emphasis on larger themes related to political polarization, partisan antipathy, distrust and compromise. We’ve been getting […] Read more »
Kellyanne Conway’s political machinations
… In August, Conway, who is forty-nine, and a longtime Republican pollster, became Trump’s third campaign manager. … Running Donald Trump’s campaign is like being the drummer in Spinal Tap: those who take the position tend to disappear in mysterious circumstances. … Conway said that Trump offered her the job […] Read more »
Are Trump’s Polls Getting Worse?
Donald Trump had drawn to within 1 or 2 percentage points of Hillary Clinton in the popular vote and into a near-tie in the Electoral College before last Monday’s presidential debate. But the debate almost immediately moved the polls in Clinton’s favor, putting her in a much more comfortable position. […] Read more »
When You Hear the Margin of Error Is Plus or Minus 3 Percent, Think 7 Instead
As anyone who follows election polling can tell you, when you survey 1,000 people, the margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points. This roughly means that 95 percent of the time, the survey estimate should be within three percentage points of the true answer. If 54 percent […] Read more »
If my candidate is behind, the poll must be biased
… There’s evidence that political partisans, like sports fans, discount or dismiss information that challenges their favored candidates or ideas, and even accept conspiracy theories that support their views. In a survey, we found evidence that ordinary citizens are more likely to believe in the accuracy of polls that show […] Read more »