Better Polling for Clinton, but Trump Is Still in Striking Distance

Donald J. Trump had a difficult week after the first presidential debate, and, as you might expect, his polling was not great. … The polls suggest that Mrs. Clinton’s performance has energized Democratic-leaning voters, helping to reduce the big gap between registered voters and likely voters that plagued her in […] Read more »

No Debate That Hillary Clinton’s Polling Numbers Are Improving

The post-debate polls are beginning to trickle in, and it already seems clear that Hillary Clinton has received a bump after the first presidential debate. A wave of high-quality battleground state surveys released on Friday showed her with a comfortable advantage in New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida and Michigan. The gains […] Read more »

Clinton’s Debate Performance Is Helping Her In Swing States

National polls conducted since Monday’s presidential debate have shown Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by an average of about 4 percentage points — a meaningful improvement from her position before the debate, when she led by just 1 or 2 points. Now, it’s becoming clearer that battleground state polls […] Read more »

Why Are the Different Presidential Forecasts So Far Apart?

Hillary Clinton currently has a 71 percent chance of winning the presidency, according to The Upshot’s forecasting model. This is down from 90 percent last month, but higher than some other models we’re tracking, which put the odds between 58 percent and 85 percent. Part of the discrepancy comes from […] Read more »