The past three weeks could not have gone much worse for Donald J. Trump, or really the entire Republican Party for that matter. Yet the polls conducted this week, after the second presidential debate on Sunday, have not been apocalyptic. … A wave election seemed possible after Mr. Trump was […] Read more »
No, one 19-year-old Trump supporter probably isn’t distorting the polling averages all by himself
… On Wednesday, the New York Times published an interesting piece that looked at how the USC/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” tracking poll weights its sample. The article suggested that the weighting was the main factor in causing the Daybreak poll to be the only major survey that had showed Donald […] Read more »
Trump Isn’t Teflon
A series of women have accused Donald Trump of sexually assaulting them. Trump has denied the claims. But given the number of accusers and the release of a tape last week that showed Trump bragging about actions similar to the ones the women described, the stories are likely to be […] Read more »
Senate Update: Clinton Is Surging, But Down-Ballot Democrats Are Losing Ground
In recent elections, more and more voters have been choosing candidates from the same party for president and Senate. That trend appeared to be holding true this year too, even with Donald Trump, unusual as he is, on the ballot. So as Hillary Clinton jumped out to a bigger lead […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s poll denialism
With Hillary Clinton extending her lead nationwide and in key battleground states, Trump is toying with what might be called “poll denialism,” giving his supporters license to dismiss the discouraging data. “Even the polls are crooked,” he said at a Monday night rally, expressing disbelief that he is losing to […] Read more »
Is There Any Precedent For A Trump Comeback?
Donald Trump now trails Hillary Clinton by 6.6 percentage points, according to our polls-only model. And the clock is ticking. We’re 26 days from the election, and by this point in past campaigns, the concrete had basically dried. Trump could stage a comeback. It’s possible. But it would be basically […] Read more »