Donald Trump’s hiring of pollster Tony Fabrizio in May was viewed as a sign that the real estate mogul was finally bringing seasoned operatives into his insurgent operation. But the Republican presidential nominee appears to have taken issue with some of the services provided by the veteran GOP strategist, who […] Read more »
Nate Silver was very wrong about Trump. Now, he needs to get it right.
… If a statistics guru can be a rock star, Silver surely is. But even rock stars have bad days. Silver, 38, had a run of them a few months ago, when it became obvious that his consistent early dismissals of Donald Trump’s chances to be the Republican presidential nominee […] Read more »
What’s wrong with the ‘right or wrong track’ polling numbers
… It turns out that “right or wrong track” isn’t a great predictor of presidential election outcomes. Candidates from the party that controls the White House have performed better when more Americans see the country heading on the right course. But that connection unravels when the incumbent president’s job approval […] Read more »
The Polling Conspiracy
Donald Trump’s supporters have taken up the claim that polls are rigged in favor of Hillary Clinton because they “oversample” Democrats. The charge is based on emails published by Wikileaks, in which the 2008 Clinton campaign considers oversampling Hispanic and Native American voters. Micah Cohen of FiveThirtyEight says the claim […] Read more »
As Donald Trump drops in polls: The polls are ‘absolutely’ rigged
The election is no longer the only thing Donald Trump is calling “rigged”—he’s coming for the polls, too. “I have no doubt about it,” he told Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly when asked whether he believed the polls were “rigged.” … “I’m winning in certain polls and then in other polls, […] Read more »
What pollsters are predicting for Election Day
Most national and battleground-state polls show Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump. Do the “late-deciders” hold the power to swing the numbers? Democratic pollster Peter Hart and Republican pollster Whit Ayres join Judy Woodruff to break down those polls, what they are telling us today and what they predict for […] Read more »