When Donald Trump insists that he’s winning the presidential election, sometimes he’s correct. He’s simply cherry-picking the three daily tracking polls that have him jockeying with Hillary Clinton for the lead. While the bulk of other polling shows Clinton building a significant advantage, the three polls reflect a vastly different […] Read more »
Is The Presidential Race Tightening?
It seems like we’re overdue for another round of “is the presidential race tightening?” And the answer isn’t totally clear. Our model thinks Donald Trump has probably narrowed his deficit against Clinton slightly, but the difference is modest enough that we’ve wanted to change our answer with every new round […] Read more »
Where Are The Undecided Voters?
Every new poll seems to provide support for one of two impressions of the race: one in which Hillary Clinton is pulling away toward a historic landslide, and another in which Clinton holds a lead but Donald Trump remains on the fringes of contention. … About 15 percent of the […] Read more »
How Clinton and Trump are strategizing with two weeks to go
With 15 days until Election Day, most polls show Hillary Clinton with a growing lead over Donald Trump, who is suggesting that the polls are rigged. Meanwhile, Clinton has shifted her campaign on focus on Senate races. Judy Woodruff speaks with Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report and NPR’s […] Read more »
The Clinton Polling Conspiracy That Doesn’t Exist
Late last night, pro-Trump Twitter lit up with excited chatter. Donald Trump is falling fast in the polls, sliding through a month-long decline most statisticians would say is a result of him being, you know, unpopular. … But one blogger had another theory: Polling organizations are deliberately interviewing more Democrats […] Read more »
Very bad analysis of a 2008 email is Donald Trump’s new excuse for why he’s losing
Earlier Monday morning, Matt Drudge’s Drudge Report (which has become a centralized resource of Donald Trump-friendly stories) highlighted a story at the blog ZeroHedge. A new email released by WikiLeaks, it seems, shows the “playbook” for “rigging” polls. CONT. Philip Bump, Washington Post Read more »