… This year, a handful of different projects are underway to disrupt the rhythm and flow of information on Election Day — including one controversial effort that some worry could affect the actual election results. CONT. Steven Shepard, Politico Read more »
Polls Can Get Latino, Asian American Vote Wrong
As the Presidential Election finally approaches, experts warn that there are good polls and bad polls which can lead to the wrong information about Latino and Asian American voters. Getting it right is important in a year when registration and early voting is showing record participation among these two groups, […] Read more »
The Election Polls That Matter
… “Big data” is a buzzword, but that concept is outdated. Campaigns have entered the era of “little data.” Huge data sets are often less helpful in understanding an electorate than one or two key data points — for instance, what issue is most important to a particular undecided voter. […] Read more »
Beware the phantom swings: why dramatic bounces in the polls aren’t always what they seem
… Over the past three weeks, our election model and polling for The Economist has shown a consistent lead for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump of three to five percent. In contrast, some other polls have shown wide swings. … We believe that most of the bounces seen in surveys this […] Read more »
Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory
… Trump remains an underdog, but no longer really a longshot: His Electoral College chances are 29 percent in our polls-only model — his highest probability since Oct. 2 — and 30 percent in polls-plus. Whenever the race tightens, we get people protesting that the popular vote doesn’t matter because […] Read more »
Averaging your way to reality
Just how likely is it that the polls will be right? Notice first, I said, polls, plural, with an “s.” There is no particular reason any one poll should be “right” — except ours, of course. That’s what the statistical margin of error is all about. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman […] Read more »