Throughout the election, our forecast models have consistently come to two conclusions. First, that Hillary Clinton was more likely than not to become the next president. And second, that the range of possible Electoral College outcomes — including the chance of a Donald Trump victory, but also a Clinton landslide […] Read more »
Final Projections: Clinton 323 EV, 51 Democratic Senate seats, GOP House
Here are my best estimates. The Presidential and House races are a near-replica of 2012. Four Senate races are within one percentage point. Partisans in Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina may want to lawyer up for possible recount battles. CONT. Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium Read more »
Senate Update: The Generic Ballot Is Hurting Democrats’ Chances
Our Senate forecasts — both polls-only and poll-plus — tipped toward Republicans late Monday, giving them about a 51 percent chance of maintaining their majority. While that technically makes the GOP a slight favorite, the fight for Senate control remains basically a coin flip. Still, our Senate forecasts have been […] Read more »
Are There Really Hidden Trump Voters?
Hillary Clinton is favored to become the next president of the United States. Yet many in Donald J. Trump’s camp remain undaunted, arguing that hidden supporters will carry him to the White House. As the polls have narrowed in the last few days, the question of whether pollsters could be […] Read more »
Barack Obama is now viewed more positively than Ronald Reagan was in 1988
Pollster.com’s Charles Franklin was a little ahead of the curve Sunday morning when he pointed out that President Obama’s approval rating right now is among the highest Election-Day approval ratings in recent history. … Why is that ahead of the curve? Because on Monday, fewer than 24 hours before polls […] Read more »
Clinton Gains, And The Polls Magically Converge
First things first: Hillary Clinton has a 70 percent chance of winning the election, according to both the FiveThirtyEight polls-only and polls-plus models. That’s up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. […] Read more »