Jean McDonnell Converse, a social scientist, historian of survey research, and expert in interview techniques, died on January 25, 2018, in Park Ridge, Ill. Converse’s work served two very important roles in the field of survey research, according to research professor Michael Traugott of the University of Michigan Institute for […] Read more »
Assessing and Improving Interview Quality in the 2016/17 AmericasBarometer
Recent methodological advances have enabled researchers to identify likely data falsification and fabrication in survey datasets (e.g., Kuriakose and Robbins 2016). However, survey researchers have historically been unable to identify and stop data fabrication from occurring in real-time, or to provide additional support and training to interviewers who need it […] Read more »
Can We Trust Polls?
Polls show that most Americans don’t believe polls. … Trustworthy or not, polls are everywhere. They make for click-friendly headlines and they add a feeling of statistical heft to arguments. … We’ll convene a panel of experts to look at poll methodology, the use of polls in journalism and whether or […] Read more »
Use of election forecasts in campaign coverage can confuse voters and may lower turnout
Americans have long been familiar with “horse race” polls that accompany elections in the United States. But since 2008, a new polling tool has gained prominence, one that not only suggests which candidate is ahead at any given moment but also estimates their probability of winning the eventual election. These […] Read more »
Could A Stock Market Downturn Tank Trump’s Approval Rating?
The stock market fell on Monday. A lot. … President Trump has spent lots of time bragging about the stock market over the past year, from dozens and dozens of references in his Twitter feed to a riff about it in last week’s State of the Union address. Moreover, the […] Read more »
The instant-gratification president reaps what he sows as markets sink
… The Dow was soaring, and Trump was tweeting and all was well. Each day the market was up was a good day for Trump and he missed few opportunities to make that case to the public. The Dow’s gains were even maybe reducing the federal debt somehow, who knows! […] Read more »