There is an acute struggle dividing U.S. voters that isn’t about Democrats versus Republicans or differences on issues. It’s about the public’s optimistic view of the economy during the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency and the simultaneously pessimistic view of Trump himself. The contrast is striking. CONT. Albert R. […] Read more »
Poll Hub podcast: Is the Nunes Memo Watergate 2.0?
The contents of the so-called “Nunes memo” are expected to be released as early as today. The memo has created a firestorm that, to some, signals a constitutional crisis nearing the level of Watergate. CONT. Marist Poll Read more »
The Last Two Weeks of Polls Have Been Great for Republicans. Do They Signal a Shift?
Last month it seemed that Democrats might ride a giant tsunami to control of the House and Senate. Now, some are wondering whether there’s a Democratic wave at all. … The question isn’t really whether Republican standing has improved recently. It has. The question is whether anyone should care: Is […] Read more »
Better poll sampling would have cast more doubt on the potential for Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 election
… In a perfect world, polls sample from the population of voters, who would state their political preference perfectly clearly and then vote accordingly. However, results from small random samples can be quite unreliable due to extremely narrow electoral margins. To calculate the probability of winning the 2016 US presidential […] Read more »
Opinary is building new tools to help news orgs use polls to inform their coverage
News organizations have spent a lot of time talking to their readers; these days, they’re getting a little bit better at listening. … Germany-based Opinary has also benefited from this shift in outlook. The company, which develops polling tools that publishers can embed in their articles, recently raised €3 million […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Which Version Of Trump’s Presidency Is Happening?
On the eve of President Trump’s first official State of the Union address, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast checks in on how his administration is doing, and which of the 14 versions of Trump’s presidency that Nate outlined about a year ago look like they could still happen. The team also […] Read more »