A series of polls shows record support for stricter gun laws in the U.S., so the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discussed whether the public reaction to the mass shooting at a high school in Parkland, Florida, reflects a turning point in the guns debate. The crew also entertains hypothetical political […] Read more »
Are Democrats reluctant to tell pollsters that they approve of Trump?
There’s an idea in polling called the Bradley effect, which posits that polls misjudged Tom Bradley’s 1982 loss in California’s governor’s race because poll respondents were unwilling to admit that they planned to vote against the first black gubernatorial candidate in the state’s history. The idea, in other words, is […] Read more »
Social Media Can Complement Surveys on Public Health Issues
During the 2016 Zika virus outbreak, the Annenberg Public Policy Center surveyed tens of thousands of people over more than seven months to learn about the American public’s behavior, attitudes, and knowledge about the virus as it spread to the United States. Yet over the same period, an even larger […] Read more »
Survey mode and presidential approval
There is a new CNN poll out today with approval at 35, disapproval at 58. That may seem a surprise with polling averages at 43 (HuffPo) and 42 (RCP) or 39.4 (538) or 44 (me, sort of). It’s not. And it raises an issue. Let me elaborate. CONT. Charles Franklin, […] Read more »
Do Trump’s ‘Approval’ Numbers Tell Us About Him, or About Us?
… What does it mean, exactly, to “approve” of a president? Does it mean you like Trump enough that, if there were an election tomorrow, you would vote for him? Does it mean that you like him personally? Or does it mean that you don’t like him personally but think […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Is Truth Overrated? Is Lying the New American Way?
In this episode of Poll Hub, truth. Based on results from the Exclusive Third Rail with OZY-Marist Poll, the Poll Hub team discusses whether or not honesty is alive and well in American society. CONT. Marist Poll Read more »