Pollsters often assume respondents can remember basic political behavior. It’s not a wise assumption. Professionals are often asking people whether they voted last year, who they voted for, whether they got a piece of mail or saw a particular ad. We’ve got lots of good evidence that many people have […] Read more »
The big problem with that Gallup poll that shows Trump’s re-election numbers equal to Obama’s
Gallup released new polling this week with an eye-popping headline: Donald Trump’s re-election numbers are very similar to those of Barack Obama in 2010 and Bill Clinton in 1994. Wait, WHAT? The narrative of Trump’s first 15 months in office has been that he is at historic polling lows. Then […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: Should Ted Cruz Actually Be Worried?
The first major public poll of the U.S. Senate race in Texas showed Republican incumbent Ted Cruz leading Democratic congressman Beto O’Rourke by only 3 points. This week, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates whether there’s reason to believe that the race is actually that close. Fittingly, the crew also […] Read more »
Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.
New national polls show voters are more upbeat about President Donald Trump’s performance and more pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House. Or not. … It’s best to approach survey results with a dose of common sense. That may make those of us seeking complete objectivity a […] Read more »
Does Endogenous Partisanship Distort Trump Approval Numbers among Republicans?
Donald Trump often receives high approval marks from members within his own party, a sign many interpret as a forceful demonstration of strong party loyalty in the current age. Moreover, many view this strong base support as a constraint on other Republican elites; despite a tumultuous presidency, elected Republican officials […] Read more »
Trump knows how polling works, but he pretends he doesn’t
It may not seem like it, but this tweet is actually an improvement. Rasmussen just came out at 51% Approval despite the Fake News Media. They were one of the three most accurate on Election Day. Just about the most inaccurate were CNN and ABC News/Washington Post, and they haven’t […] Read more »