Donald Trump often receives high approval marks from members within his own party, a sign many interpret as a forceful demonstration of strong party loyalty in the current age. Moreover, many view this strong base support as a constraint on other Republican elites; despite a tumultuous presidency, elected Republican officials must heed the opinion of their rank-and-file and cannot abandon Trump. However, many have also raised questions over the reliability of these intra-party approval numbers. Specifically, a key question–that I have tried to speak to before–is whether partisanship is endogenous to Trump approval. If original Republicans who approve of Trump continue to identify as Republican but original ones who disapprove of Trump start to eschew this label, then this creates a misleading portrait of base support. In such a case, Republican identification starts to become inseparable from support for Trump, and thus party breakdowns of Trump approval lose meaning.
Recent panel survey data from Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group can shed light on this important question. CONT.
Alexander Agadjanian