The House generic ballot, a national polling question that gauges voter intentions in the House vote, often fluctuates a lot from poll to poll. For instance, a poll that is highly rated by FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, Monmouth University, fluctuated from a 15-point Democratic lead in December 2017 to a two-point […] Read more »
The Blankenship ‘surge’ is why we should be wary of internal data and polls
Republicans escaped disaster in West Virginia on Tuesday when Don Blankenship finished third in the Senate primary. In fact, Blankenship ended up about 15 points behind winner Patrick Morrisey. That came as a surprise to some in the media and no doubt to some consumer of news who heard reports […] Read more »
President Trump’s Approval Rating Has Been Steady. Richard Nixon’s Once Was Too.
… For the past 66 days, Trump’s approval rating has been somewhere between 40.0 percent and 42.1 percent, according to our tracker. It’s been toward the higher end of that range recently — but that isn’t much of range. Indeed, over the whole course of his presidency, the range Trump’s […] Read more »
Trump keeps celebrating polling gains he’s supposedly already made
… What Trump’s doing is like a guy bragging about the big boost to his bank account after every payday and not telling anyone about how much he spends at the racetrack. It’s like Trump’s standing on the shore telling everyone how much water is coming in with each wave […] Read more »
How Trump’s false claim about African American support happened
President Trump recently bragged about his support among African Americans, saying his poll numbers had “doubled.” His claim has been repeated thousands of times on TV and online. Some media figures have treated it as fact. But it’s not. The news organization responsible for the poll, Reuters, says its data […] Read more »
Most voters have become numb to each new Trump scandal because they don’t believe what he says anyway
If you’re waiting for news that President Donald Trump lied about Stormy Daniels to alter his election-year standing, stop. … The president’s legal jeopardy seized this week’s headlines. Exposure of specific falsehoods concerning the Daniels case scandalized even Trump-friendly quarters of the political world, drawing condemnations from Fox News and […] Read more »