The outcome of the Democratic primary in New York’s 14th House District last month made headlines worldwide. The upset of a 20-year incumbent renewed debate over the validity of political polling . People took notice when 28-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez bumped off 10-term incumbent Congressman Joe Crowley 58 to 42 percent. […] Read more »
Why some polls may be underestimating Democrats
Republicans dominated the midterm elections in 2010 and 2014 in part because voters who supported Barack Obama in presidential years voted for Republicans or stayed home when he wasn’t on the ballot. The turnout advantage Republicans enjoyed during the Obama years may no longer exist as we head into 2018, […] Read more »
‘New poll suggests…’: How to tell when public opinion has really changed
The volume and frequency of opinion polls in the UK has increased enormously since the advent of online polling in the early 2000s, bringing with it heightened scrutiny of potential changes in public sentiment on political and social issues. Polls measuring vote intention are now published on an almost weekly […] Read more »
Is Trump really winning? The truth about the president’s popularity
Six hundred days after the 2016 election, many US voters remain deeply skeptical of, if not hostile to, political polling. The national polls in 2016 were actually fairly accurate: Hillary Clinton was supposed to win the popular vote by about three points and she ended up winning by two. But […] Read more »
Election 2018: Arizona, Florida & Ohio
The Marist Poll and NBC News are at it, again – polling hotly contested midterm election contests. On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the team breaks down the meaning behind the numbers. Which demographic groups are emerging as influential? Are notable proportions of voters persuadable? How do opinions of President […] Read more »
That AP/NORC Poll: Do Americans really mean ‘no’ to a Trump self-pardon? Maybe, maybe not.
An AP/NORC poll, conducted June 13-18, and reported last week, presents pretty convincing numbers that Americans in principle believe that presidents should not be able to pardon themselves. … While the AP/NORC poll provides some interesting information, the results are actually quite speculative. The poll results were obtained in a […] Read more »