While Britain’s market reeled from the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union, hedge funds used secret polling data to make millions off the collapse of the pound. NPR’s Mary Louise Kelly speaks with Bloomberg reporter Cam Simpson about what happened. NPR Read more »
Politics Podcast: Trump Won’t Stop Talking About Immigration
President Trump backed down on Wednesday from his “zero tolerance” immigration policy, which detained parents and children who crossed the border illegally. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discusses the fallout from the policy and how Trump is talking about immigration in the run up to the midterms. Also, as record […] Read more »
Brexit’s Big Short: How Pollsters Helped Hedge Funds Beat the Crash
At 10 p.m. on June 23, 2016, Sky News projected the words “IN OR OUT” across the top of a London building as an orchestral score ratcheted up the tension. “In or out—it is too late to change your mind,” declared Adam Boulton, the veteran anchor, seated in a makeshift […] Read more »
Back to the Future With Party ID
It’s morning again in America. You grab your first cup of coffee, click to your favorite news site and are greeted by a new poll with a huge generic ballot spike in the congressional vote. What should your reaction be? Is it time to freak out, or calm down and […] Read more »
They’re under 50%, but Democrats should feel good about their Senate chances in Pennsylvania
… The poll of the week: A new Franklin and Marshall poll that puts Democratic Sen. Bob Casey ahead of his Republican opponent Lou Barletta 44% to 27%. It’s the latest poll that has Casey with a double-digit lead over Barletta. … Barletta’s campaign put some interesting spin on the […] Read more »
Poll Hub: They’re at It, Again!
Perhaps, the great Yogi Berra said it best — It’s deja vu all over again! The lack of distinction between public opinion polls and forecasters in 2016 created a false aura of inevitability around Hillary Clinton. Two years later, pollsters witness emerging, untested polling methods that run the risk of […] Read more »