… Democrats hate Trump more than they hated Nixon. The lowest approval rating Nixon ever saw from Democrats was 11 percent — right as he was leaving office. More than 11 percent of Democrats have approved of Trump in only two weeks of Gallup polling, including his first week in […] Read more »
Nixon, Watergate and Partisan Opinion
… By the time of the Saturday Night Massacre, on October 20, 1973, Nixon’s approval had already reached its “steady state” low point, with almost no change until the bitter end. The Massacre itself and subsequent revelations, including tape transcripts, and impeachment proceedings did little to reduce his approval ratings. […] Read more »
Trump is as strongly disliked now as Nixon was before he resigned
… A new Marist College poll finds that 20% of Americans rate President Donald Trump’s job performance as excellent, 20% as pretty good, 13% as only fair and 45% as poor. … Trump has, throughout his first term, maintained a low but fairly steady approval rating. He’s also had a […] Read more »
An Economic Upturn Begun Under Obama Is Now Trump’s to Tout
By nearly every standard measure, the American economy is doing well — and better than it was a year and a half ago, before Donald Trump was elected president. If only the debate over who deserves most of the credit were as easily judged. Americans’ perceptions of the economy’s prospects […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information
Abstract: We forecast party control of the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm election. First, we model the expected national vote relying on available generic Congressional polls and the party of the president. Second, we model the district vote based primarily on results from 2016 and the national swing. […] Read more »
What the 2016 Elections Taught Us About Uncertainty
I am frequently asked what the “surprise elections” will be this fall. After all, there are always a few races whose outcome—or near outcome, the results much closer than expected—seem to come out of the blue. … The surprise outcome in November 2016 was the disparity between the state-level polls […] Read more »